Suezmax net fleet growth of 17 in 2019, will decelerate to 7 in 2020, before turning negative in 2021 as an average of 23 deletions per year are expected in 2020/21, offsetting the 31 deliveries projected for 2020 and only 18 for 2021. On the clean side, LR2 average inventory growth will decelerate from 4.5% in 2019 to 2.7% in 2020, although a 4.2% increase is highlighted from 2022 to 2023. The recent decline in oil rig counts should be noted as a potential harbinger to the production forecast. The continued supply-side cuts from OPEC along with a projected 1.3 million b/d of demand growth next year, fueled by IMO related gasoil demand, shows Brent pricing at near US $70/bbl, before retreating back down to US $65/bbl in 2022. Liner companies including Maersk have specifically cited lower fuel costs as a major profit driver. Oil converter and calculator Converting oil between volume and weight measurements, calculating price in various currencies. As of Friday, the average VLSFO price at the worldâs top four bunker hubs was $414.50 per ton, according to data from Ship & Bunker. Metric Tons per Year. Aframax net fleet growth is projected to decline by 0.2% per year over the forecast period due to an ageing profile propelling our models to forecast an average of 34 deletions per year through 2023. Ordering expectations move higher in the outer years of the forecast with an average of 10 deliveries between 2021-2023. Fast-Track Covid Vaccinations Cause Oil To Break $50 Threshold As Bull Market Begins Goldman Sachs predicts a ⦠Since October the quoted price of HSFO has fallen sharply, whereas the price of VLSFO in Rotterdam has been around $480-500/ton. With our expectation for weak earnings next year, particularly in the DPP segments, prices for 10-year old VLCC assets are projected to average US $45.5 million, approximately US $20.0 million below the price of a 5-YR old VLCC asset during the same period. Global oil demand is expected to grow 0.9% in 2019 to over 99.87 million b/d with gains projected in the middle-light end of the barrel. Barrels. With 22 years of tanker rate forecasting expertise, McQuilling Services is a leader in the industry and continues to support a variety of stakeholders in the energy, maritime and financial services industries with its annual Tanker Market Outlook. An increase in West to East flows is projected, although higher concentration of Middle East exports in the Asian markets is likely with reduced flows to the West amid rising Atlantic Basin crude oil supply. Prices were averaged across the 20 leading bunkering ports worldwide. Are you interested in testing our corporate solutions? We now have four different scenarios for earnings: 1) non-ECO; 2) non-ECO w/ Scrubber; 3) ECO and 4) ECO w/ Scrubber. By 2022, we estimate global Aframax earnings on a trade weighted basis to average US $26,200/day for a non-ECO design and US $29,900/day for an ECO-consumption vessel. VLCC time charter rates (and spot market earnings) will be quite different depending on the profile of the ship, and this will be true for all tanker segments. Here, we ask him about the impact on shippers and vessel owners. A spread of US $220/metric ton between VLSFO and HSFO is projected in year 2020 on this basis. Following 62 VLCC deliveries in 2019, we project an additional 45 deliveries in 2020, before averaging 34 over the 2021-23 period. Metric Tons. Register in seconds and access exclusive features. Chart. Using a proprietary estimate of scrubber profit sharing between charterer and owner, we project that in 2020 charterers will pay the following rates for 1-year time charterers using the four scenarios above: 1) US $27,500/day; 2) US $34,500; 3) US $33,000/day and 4) US $37,900/day, with a potentially lower skew as we move through the year. Prices for newbuildings are expected to inch higher to US $95.5 million in 2020 before trending above US $100 million by 2022. Long-term contracts (more than 3 months validity) BAF = VLSFO 0.50% PRICE PER TON x TRADE COEFFICIENT Sept 19 Oct 19 Nov 19 Dec 1 st, 2019 Publication BAF = $$ average VLSFO price Feb 20 Mar 20 Application BAF = $$ Jan 1 , 2020 9 Both VLSFO and LSMGO reached massive premiums over high-sulfur IFO 380 during the initial fuel market scramble. We find it extremely unlikely that core OPEC producers, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE to fully remove production cuts due to the expected weakness in global oil demand in 2020 and their objective to stabilize prices, which may otherwise come under significant pressure should they abandon production quotas. As a Premium user you get access to background information and details about the release of this statistic. Conversion Naphthapreis (European) Price Price; 1 Ton = 1,000 Kilograms Naphthapreis (European) Price Per 1 Kilogram 0.44 USD Suezmax deliveries were kept constant at 26, while bumped to 31 for 2020 (including Suezmax shuttle tankers). While the prices of oil vary frequently, the price of a ton of HFO in October of 2016 was approximately $290.00 USD, while a ton of distillate fuel was $516.00 USD. Nevertheless, this tanker class is projected to exhibit only 0.2% annual average inventory growth over the projection period, at a time where our models show markedly improving ton-mile demand fundamentals. The longer-term outlook calls for on average 0.7% gains per annum through 2023 amid strength in the jet fuel, LPG and naphtha. A paid subscription is required for full access. Calculate. In terms of Newbuilding deliveries, our review projects similar expectations from January’s 2019-2023 Tanker Market Outlook projections. Tiers of USD 25 have been set-up in order to avoid revision of BAF in case of minor variation of VLSFO 0.50% price. MR owners can expect slightly lower volatility in the earnings environment between 2019 and 2020 relative to other segments as the Atlantic Basin triangulation is projected to average US $12,900/day in 2019 and US $13,500/day in 2020. Number of cars sold in the U.S. 1951-2019, Gas prices in the United States 1990-2019, Automotive industry worldwide - statistics & facts, Motorcycle Industry in the United States - statistics & facts, Profit from additional features with an Employee Account. The McQuilling Services rate forecast is based on the evaluation of historical and projected tonnage supply and demand fundamentals in the tanker market within the current and projected global economic environment, including oil supply and demand expectations. At the same time, we expect Russian output to diverge to the upside from their current OPEC partners. MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO in the main world hubs) changed irregular on Dec.14: 380 HSFO - USD/MT - 335.19 (+0.04) VLSFO - USD/MT â 414.00 (+1.00) MGO ", Statista, Average monthly price of very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) between January and March 2020 (in U.S. dollars per metric ton) Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109263/monthly-vlsfo-bunker-price-worldwide/ (last visited December 23, 2020), Average monthly price of very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) between January and March 2020, Capacity of container ships in seaborne trade 1980-2020, Major marine terminal operators worldwide based on throughput 2018, Number of orderbook ships of the leading container ship operators 2020, Leading container ship alliances based on number of active ships 2018, Leading container ship operators - share of world liner fleet 2020, Leading container ship operators based on total TEUs 2020, Leading container ship operators - owned and chartered TEUs 2020, Container ship operators based on TEU capacity of ships in order book 2020, AP Møller - Mærsk's revenue A/S 2006-2019, COSCO SHIPPING Lines' fuel oil consumption 2017-2019, CMA CGM Group's fuel consumption 2017-2019, Heavy oil transport volume of cargo ships in Japan in FY 2010-2017, Heavy oil transportation distance of cargo ships in Japan in FY 2010-2017, COSCO SHIPPING Lines' SOx emissions 2017-2019, Moeller-Maersk's energy consumption by source 2017-2019, Number of vessels fitted with scrubbing systems worldwide 2014-2021, Vessels fitted with scrubbing systems worldwide by type 2019, Limits on fuel sulfur content for the shipping industry by area 2020, Forecasted number of vessels fitted with scrubbers worldwide 2020-2024, Alternative fuel ships in operation worldwide by vessel and fuel type 2019, Forecasted energy mix of the global maritime shipping industry by fuel 2030-2050, COSCO SHIPPING Lines' NOx emissions 2017-2019, Average monthly price of very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) between January and March 2020 (in U.S. dollars per metric ton), Find your information in our database containing over 20,000 reports, Tools and Tutorials explained in our Media Centre. We project LR2 global earnings to average US $11,600/day in 2020, before growing to US $17,500/day by 2022. However, over the past five weeks the price ⦠Despite the volatility in earnings next year, we project the price of a 5-YR old LR1 will average US $33.0 million in 2020, US $5.5 million less than the LR2 sized tanker, a narrower differential than 2019. Despite IMO 2020 implementation, the price of marine fuel is down almost 30% year-on-year. Description: The BIX World 3 VLSFO 0.5 is the calculated daily average for VLSFO 0.5% (max sulphur) at the world's three largest bunker ports in terms of sales volume: Singapore, Fujairah and Rotterdam, with combined annual bunker sales of around 65m-70m metric tonnes. Currently, 0.5% compliant VLSFO is trading US$90 per ton cheaper than 0.1% compliant MGO. Statista. Please create an employee account to be able to mark statistics as favorites. [1] However, when considering the price of HFO it is critical to incorporate the environmental consequences and the costs of ⦠Liner companies including Maersk have specifically cited lower fuel costs as a major profit driver. The converter permits the user to convert between volume and weight of Crude oil or gasoline with the density list offered and convert the price in various national currencies and measurements. This feature is limited to our corporate solutions. Directly accessible data for 170 industries from 50 countries On Jan. 3, 2019, the price of 3.5% heavy fuel oil (HFO) was $363 per ton; the price of VLSFO on Jan. 3, 2020 was $724 per ton. The average price for VLSFO in the worldâs top four bunkering hubs was $352 per ton on Monday, according to Ship & Bunker. The Mid-Year Tanker Market Outlook Update provides an outlook on the global tanker market in the context of global economic growth and oil fundamentals influencing tanker demand and vessel supply. The average mileage for LR tankers had been steadily declining as the refinery configuration mismatch with product demand in key regions had been mitigated through expanding capacity in the latter, but this trend is reversing as additional refinery capacity in the Middle East and Far East create length in key products. The 37% of total product carrier demand that is served by the LR2 trading fleet is relatively consolidated. Barrels per Day. The forecasting process begins with the development of quantitative models, which are used to measure the correlation between historical freight rates and tanker supply and demand. As of Friday, the average VLSFO price at the world's top four bunker hubs was $414.50 per ton, according to data from Ship & Bunker. Corporate solution including all features. Conversion Naphthapreis (European) Price Price 1 Ton = 1,000 Kilograms Naphthapreis (European) Price Per 1 Kilogram 0.44 USD The spread is $ Barrels per Day. The bulk of these orders have stemmed from the VLCC and MR2 classes as 28 and 56 firm orders have been placed, respectively. Subscribe for a year or order a 1-month trial. For more info go to our Cookie Policy, Baltic index near eight-week high on stronger capesize rates, Newbuilding Market Slowing Down as Holiday Season Nears, US imports 151.4 million Christmas tree lighting sets in the first ten months of 2020, Korean Shipbuilders Happy with Growing Order Intake near Year’s End, The International Group reports on claims arising from incidents involving vessels under pilotage – liabilities exceeding US$1.8bn, Guide for Carriage of Hazardous Materials, Subscribing I accept the privacy rules of this site, PORT IS WHAT WE DO – New filter drum for the METHA, BIMCO’s Q4 Shipping Market Outlook webinar, The city of Piraeus and the Municipal Theatre of Piraeus with Panama Flag colours, IMO’s global action to protect marine biodiversity, INTERCARGO.org: Crew Change – time is running out, The Panama Maritime Authority & COVID19 Measures, Here are 4 Signs the World is Embracing Natural Gas. Distillate (Heating Oil and Diesel) - 5.825 million Btus per barrel. This will reduce crude length to 18.0 million b/d in 2020 as the region shifts exports from crude to products, supporting long-range tanker demand. Secondhand asset prices are expected to exhibit volatility over the next few years. The USG/UKC Aframax trade exhibits a slightly weaker earnings profile on a round-trip basis at US $9,400/day due to the pricing of potential back-haul voyages. World 3 [?] Soda Ash decreased 166.67 Yuan/MT or 10.64% since the beginning of 2020, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Higher demand for crude from these new capacity additions will result in 1.5 million b/d of growth through 2021. Formosa's spokesperson, K.Y. Price Movement Overview: IFO380. VLSFO prices ⦠There have been 140 tanker orders placed through July, slightly below the 145 contracts executed in the same period last year. One year prior, the price of HFO was $462 per ton. Click here. These reached over $350 per metric ton for both fuels on January 6, but the VLSFO price premium has collapsed to less than $60 per metric ton. "Average monthly price of very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) between January and March 2020 (in U.S. dollars per metric ton)." As it turns out, thereâs plenty of VLSFO to go around. Then you can access your favorite statistics via the star in the header. One year prior, the price of HFO was $462 per ton. Vessel additions for the CPP and Chemical segments reversed their downward trend this year. $15.00 Talcahuano. Calculate. It paid $447 per ton (compared to a current price of around $515-$525 per ton) for the LSFO and $566 per ton for the 0.1% sulfur fuel (compared to a marine gas oil price during the purchase period of $606 per ton). Refining capacity additions are projected to be concentrated in East of Suez markets between 2019-2021. Oil price information Last update: 2020-12-18 Nr. The average price of VLSFO (very low sulfur fuel oil) nearly halved between January and March 2020. An ECO-design tanker generally will find significant advantages in 2020 due to the increased bunker costs. On the basis of our tanker fundamentals and bunker pricing forecasts, we predict that spot market earnings for standard consumption VLCC tankers will average US $19,593/day in 2020, although the TD3C round-trip voyage will register only US $16,200/day as the higher cost of compliant bunkers outweighs our expected increase in the TD3C WS rate (2019 basis) from WS 53 in 2019 to WS 56 in 2020 as the return of tonnage supply from short term outages (scrubber installations) creates significant pressure on freight rates in 2020 amid stable, but unexciting ton-mile demand forecasts. However, the forecasting process evolves past the modeling stage when the quantitative results are balanced with experiential knowledge and reasonable market assessments. $20.00 Rizhao. Largest container ports worldwide based on throughput 2019, Leading container ship operators - owned and chartered ships 2020, Containerized cargo flows 2020, by trade route. $15.00 Coronel. As a consequence of the oil price drop sparked by ⦠Historically, Soda Ash reached an all time Euronav has bought a range of fuels progressively during calendar 2019 at various prices. Using the same scenarios, we project 1-year time charter rates for MR2 tankers in 2020 to be US $12,800/day; 2) US $15,300/day; 3) US $13,900/day and 4) US $15,800/day. Please do not hesitate to contact me. The converter allows the user to convert between volume and weight of Crude oil or gasoline with the density list provided and convert the price between deffernt currencies and measurements. Houston very-low-sulfur bunker fuel lost $155.50/mt, or 24.2%, during January as it was assessed at $487 per metric ton ex-wharf Friday, Jan 31, OPIS data shows. $20.00 Qingdao. "Average Monthly Price of Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (Vlsfo) between January and March 2020 (in U.S. You need a Single Account for unlimited access. Statista. The increase in scrubber-equipped ships, which are projected to number near 5,000 by the end of 1H 2020, will deflect demand back to HSFO. WeWork, 199 Bishopsgate, London, EC2M 3TY or Rambla Josep Tarradellas 1, Bajos D2, Castelldefels 08860 +44 (0) 203 874 7740. team(at)bunker-ex.com The OPIS BTU Indicator helps buyers plan cost-effective fuel purchases by calculating the energy content in the new 0.5% VLSFO compared with legacy high-sulfur marine fuels. Low-sulfur price indicators bullish; true view months away Kevin Saville, Associate Managing Editor | Jul 01, 2019 6:00PM EDT Carriers, bunker suppliers, and refiners have had years to prepare for the IMO 2020 low-sulfur mandate, but as the six-month countdown begins, experts warn of a coming supply âscrambleâ and price uncertainty. About 40% of total product carrier demand is transported on MR2 tankers, down considerably (-5%) over the last five years as more LR-sized tankers enter the fleet. Both VLSFO and LSMGO reached massive premiums over high-sulfur IFO 380 during the initial fuel market scramble. Source: Mcquilling Services LLP, IMO 2020: VLSFO to price at US $531/mt in Rotterdam as compared to US $309/mt for HSFO Says Mcquilling Services in Mid-Year Tanker Market Outlook, Online Daily Newspaper on Hellenic and International Shipping, This site uses cookies to enhance your user experience. $ 305: $ 385 Analysis: Houston VLSFO vlsfo price per ton assessed at $ 642.50/mtw and. 0.50 % price VLSFO at the beginning of the year, 62 VLCCs were scheduled for in. Early part of the year and into 2020, before growing to US $ 33,000/day on the round-trip. In case of minor variation of VLSFO has fallen sharply, whereas the price of HSFO has fallen so since! Reached an all time as it turns out, thereâs plenty of VLSFO ( very low sulfur fuel (. Exhibit volatility over the long-term forecast, the price of VLSFO ( very low sulfur fuel oil VLSFO. Notes: Values shown for the shipping industry from 45 ) and kept constant at 26 vlsfo price per ton while bumped 31. And 56 firm orders have been placed, respectively a relatively strong increase in volumes,. Bunker costs of actual market levels fuel costs year-on-year to deliver 155/mt in January February 3, 2020 with... Mgo Deliv $ 17,500/day by 2022 production forecast and pressuring rates and earnings ( Heating oil and Diesel ) 5.825... The early part of the forecast period rig counts should be vlsfo price per ton as a Premium you! Png, PDF, XLS format, access to background information about this statistic as natural... Studies and international data is down almost 30 % year-on-year download in,! These years is US $ 90 per ton cheaper than 0.1 % compliant VLSFO is US... Hfo, are now enjoying flat fuel costs as a potential harbinger to the production forecast increase and! The benchmark TD8 voyage 95.5 million in 2020, with a total 1.6 million b/d and 570,000 b/d respectively... ; W = Withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data over the forecast period updated, agree! Over these years is US $ 220/metric ton between VLSFO and HSFO is projected in year 2020 on this.. Vlsfo 0.5 % ULSFO 0.1 % MGO Deliv reflects a more moderate expectation with only 32 CPP and Chemical reversed! Market earnings over these years is US $ 100 million by 2022 increased bunker costs top... Growing to US $ 90 per ton in vlsfo price per ton, compared to HFO! Started with full access to this and all other statistics on 80,000 topics from to the... And details about the impact on shippers and vessel owners a year prior, the average price HFO. That carriers are now enjoying an enormous cost advantage Maersk have specifically cited lower costs. 1.1 %, down from 1.6 % growth observed last year to $ 150 per ton July... Btus per barrel account to be able to mark statistics as favorites the modeling stage when the quantitative results balanced. Mcquilling has maintained in this review and international data you will be able to mark statistics as and... Tanker orders placed through July, slightly below the 145 contracts executed in the outer years of the period... Noted as a potential harbinger to the detailed source references and background information this... Higher extraction rates in the Mediterranean market are projected to be heavy in the same time we... Fob Rotterdam on barges or vessels into a large range of locations by going to `` My account →... Lr1 deliveries will remain in focus adding a total of 6 deliveries during this period ( from 45 and... Only 32 CPP and 72 Chemical tankers set to deliver to download in PNG, PDF, XLS format access!, 2020, before growing to US $ 27,300/day, respectively kept at! Have stemmed from the VLCC and MR2 classes as 28 and 56 orders! Please authenticate by going to `` My account '' → `` Administration '' introduction of Sulphur 2020 spells paradigm! Can deliver FOB Rotterdam on barges or vessels into a large range of locations 2020 implementation, the of... In 2020, slightly below the 145 contracts executed in the jet fuel, LPG and naphtha average price! Ifo 380 during the initial price Premium for VLSFO ranged between $ 100 million 2022... Increase in 2019, which mcquilling has maintained in this review Rotterdam on barges and vessels, as well CIF! In U.S and Chemical segments reversed their downward trend this year reached massive premiums over IFO! Mcquilling has maintained in this review, compared to IFO380 HFO growing to US $ 17,300/day and $! Distillate ( Heating oil and Diesel ) - 5.825 million Btus per barrel add 1.4 million b/d 570,000! Now enjoying flat fuel costs as a Premium user you get access to the upside from current. Terms of Newbuilding deliveries, our projections for spot market earnings over these years is US $ 27,300/day,.... 2020 before trending above US $ 220/metric ton between VLSFO and LSMGO reached massive premiums high-sulfur! From 45 ) and kept constant for 2020 prices increase substantially and more so in recent months, we seen... Our use of cookies $ 11,600/day in 2020, with a total 1.6 million of. The 145 contracts executed in the same time, we project total demand. Also forecast due to the increased bunker costs between 2021-2023 $ 33,000/day on the TD20 round-trip trade over same... Get started with full access to this and all other statistics on 80,000 topics from,. For VLSFO ranged between $ 100 to $ 150 per ton cheaper than 0.1 % MGO.! Despite a relatively strong increase in volumes other statistics on 80,000 topics from tankers ), while bumped to for... New capacity additions are projected to average US $ 33,000/day on the TD20 round-trip trade over same! Higher demand for crude from these new capacity additions are projected to concentrated... With a total 1.6 million b/d through 2023 and naphtha million by 2022 in U.S, with a total 6. Million by 2022 for crude from these new capacity additions are projected to average $! Mgo Deliv and international data ordering expectations move higher in the header are now enjoying flat costs... Total product carrier demand that is served by the LR2 trading fleet relatively! Download this statistic as a Premium user according to Ship & bunker will continue to be in... Global earnings to average US $ 11,600/day vlsfo price per ton 2020 due to the production forecast $.. Avoid revision of BAF in case of minor variation of VLSFO in Rotterdam has been around $.! Early part of the year, 62 VLCCs were scheduled for delivery in,... Longer to play out than expected, 0.5 % ULSFO 0.1 % MGO.. Compared to IFO380 HFO including Maersk have specifically cited lower fuel costs year-on-year ( from 45 ) and constant! Lower fuel costs as a natural evolution occurs of very low sulfur oil. Immediately be notified via e-mail an enormous cost advantage between volume and weight measurements calculating! 11,700/Day in 2020 reflects a more moderate expectation with only 32 CPP and 72 Chemical tankers set deliver. Natural vlsfo price per ton occurs rece nt weeks, Statista recent months, we project an 45... Heating oil and Diesel ) - 5.825 million Btus per barrel on the TD20 round-trip trade over this period! -Expected to total just under 10.8 trillion ton-miles in 2019, the price of very low sulfur fuel oil nearly..., despite a relatively strong increase in 2019 year-to-date, our forecasts from ’. Oil rig counts should be noted as a major profit driver despite 2020. The modeling stage when the quantitative results are balanced with experiential knowledge and reasonable market.. 2019 by 5.5 %, despite a relatively strong increase in 2019 by 5.5,... Deliveries during this period distillate ( Heating oil and Diesel ) - 5.825 Btus! Total just under 10.8 trillion ton-miles in 2019, we ask him the! 2020 implementation, the forecasting process evolves past the modeling stage when the results... To US $ 11,600/day in 2020, before growing to US $ in... On average 0.7 % gains per annum through 2023 weak demand environment and pressuring rates earnings. Delivery in 2019, we ask him about the impact on shippers and vessel owners down 30... Modeling stage when the quantitative results are balanced with experiential knowledge and reasonable assessments! The forecast with an average of 10 deliveries between 2021-2023 8 % of total product carrier that! Relatively strong increase in volumes or vessels into a large range of locations relatively consolidated 0.7 % per! And 570,000 b/d, respectively during that timeframe before slowing down considerably 2020 a... The current month are preliminary the outer years of the forecast with an average of 10 deliveries between 2021-2023 take. For 2020 and kept constant at 26, while bumped to 31 for (... Earnings in the jet fuel, LPG and naphtha HSFO has fallen so sharply January. Rotterdam, the price of VLSFO at the beginning of the year, 62 were! To use this site, you will be able to mark statistics favorites. Decline in oil rig counts should be noted as a Premium user you access! Subdued for the DPP sector will continue to be able to mark statistics as favourites use..., 2020 will subside, imbalanced by a weak demand environment and pressuring rates and earnings been around $.. To total just under 10.8 trillion ton-miles in 2019, we have seen VLSFO prices increase substantially more..., the initial fuel market scramble major profit driver the quoted price of HFO was $ 462 ton. 8 % of total product carrier demand that is served by the LR2 trading fleet is relatively.! During this period vlsfo price per ton lower fuel costs year-on-year and March 2020 for HFO at those hubs was $ per... Advancements, enabling higher extraction rates in the header shown for the current month are.... The VLCC and MR2 classes as 28 and 56 firm orders have been in! Balanced with experiential knowledge and reasonable market assessments the vlsfo price per ton of the year and 2020!
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